DECATUR — Fewer students have enrolled in Decatur Public Schools year after year since the 1990’s and that 30-year trend is accelerating.
That’s the conclusion of Preston Smith, the demographer hired to assess the District 61’s population trends. He is the president and CEO of Missouri-based Business Information Services, LLC.
“We’ve done about 300 of these studies in 17 states,” Smith told the Decatur Board of Education on Tuesday. “Of all the studies we’ve done, your district is probably going to be the one that has the most negative outlook.”
Smith said that demographic trends are stacked against the district. The population is aging. Birth rates are declining. The local economy is slow. More and more taxpayers do not have kids in the district and only interact when they have to pay taxes.
There are private schools and neighboring school districts competing for new families and school rating websites rank DPS low among Illinois school districts.
So, the school has plenty of space for students in its current buildings and will continue to have more room, according to Smith’s projections.
“The only way I’d build a new school is if you close two or three of the older ones, build one nicer and bigger and catch people’s attention,” he explained.
“I can’t tell you how bleak a demographic picture this really is.”
Smith said it would take considerable effort to reverse the entrenched decline. He recommended redrawing attendance lines for schools so that the few overcrowded schools send students to the schools with capacity.
Smith added the district should work with the city to do whatever they can to attract young families, even with something like a $1,000 or $2,000 subsidy to move into district boundaries. He also said the district has to figure out how to improve its online rankings, noting that some districts even assign staff people to work on climbing up the algorithm.
In response to a school board member question, Smith said the city and school tax policies are consistent with the region and should not be an obstacle to attracting businesses. He did say that setting aside a portion of taxes in “tax increment financing” to fund new development and improvements could work.
Board of Education member Will Wetzel said the findings reminded him that the board’s recent work is crucial. The board is interviewing the next superintendent to replace Rochelle Clark when she retires at the end of this academic year.
Board members are also part of a team of 39 people starting to plan for the district’s next chapter. The strategic plan is called “Roadmap 2030.”
“I think this is a 100-year decision and the onus is on us to get it right,” Wetzel said. “I think the gravity of the situation hit me a little harder tonight than it ever has.”
DPS hired Smith’s firm in October. Business Information Services was paid $32,300 for their work, with travel expenses billed separately.